![]() ![]() She is also charged with conspiracy to murder Mr Daybell’s first wife Tammy Daybell. Infamously dubbed the “cult mom”, she is charged with the murders of her two youngest children Tylee Ryan, 16, and Joshua “JJ” Vallow, seven, whose remains were discovered on the grounds of Mr Daybell’s property in Rexburg, Idaho, in June 2020 – nine months after their last signs of life. On 3 April 2023, Ms Vallow’s murder trial began in Idaho. In the three years since the November 2019 wedding of Lori Vallow and Chad Daybell, a deeply disturbing tale of suspected murders, unexplained deaths and apocalyptic cult beliefs about killing zombies has come to light.įive people close to the couple have wound up dead.Īnd the couple are now charged with murder. His wife of three decades – the mother of his five children – had died suddenly just two weeks earlier.Īnd her husband had been shot dead by her brother (who would also soon be dead) not long before. Her two children had not been seen alive in two months. ![]() Photos captured the apparently blissful day as they toasted their nuptials, embraced and she danced to him playing the guitar.īut, behind the photos, something much more disturbing was going on. It looked every inch the fairytale wedding.ĭressed in white with pink flower garlands around their necks, the bride and groom couldn’t have looked happier as they exchanged vows on a paradise beach in Hawaii. Activity elsewhere suggests they are also preparing for the worst.(The Idaho Post-Register/AP/The Independent) The pickup in share prices indicates that investors are hoping for the best. But the waning enthusiasm of retail investors and the rush to insure against catastrophe implies that investors remain worried this bout of bad news could be straightforwardly bad. ![]() Towards the end of monetary-tightening cycles, investors are prone to adopting a “bad-news-is-good-news” mentality, where any indication of difficulty in the economy is counter-intuitively their friend, since it indicates central bankers might back off interest-rate rises (or even cut rates). The cost to buy a derivative that pays out if the Fed “capitulates”-if interest rates are cut by around two percentage points by December-is double that to buy one that pays out if rates climb above 6%.Īll this indicates an unease that is masked by headline share-price buoyancy. But now investors are paying to protect themselves against doomsday scenarios. Investors were paying just as much to bet on the Fed raising rates above 6% by the end of the year as they were on it cutting rates to below 4%. In early March swaptions markets were balanced. These allow investors to place long-shot bets on what might happen to interest rates, which many use as a form of insurance for their portfolios: staying long on stocks, say, but buying a handful of swaptions that will pay out in size if something goes horribly wrong. Third, and most telling, is what is happening with “swaptions”, or interest-rate derivatives. In the last two weeks of March individuals purchased just a net $9bn of stocks, the lowest amount since late 2020. But their activity collapsed along with Silicon Valley Bank. These traders piled into stocks earlier this year, buying, on net, a record $17bn of shares in the first two weeks of February, according to Vanda, a data provider. Retail-trading flows have been elevated since the start of 2021, when the frenzy over GameStop, a retailer, stoked the enthusiasm of huge numbers of individual investors. Second, individual investors, who tend to get sucked in during the market’s fizziest periods, seem to be moving to the sidelines. ![]() This is most obvious from the performance of the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, which rallied by 7% in March. The reason that overall indices of stocks rallied is because gains in the share prices of the firms that have been most sensitive to higher rates-namely, the tech giants, including Apple and Microsoft-have more than offset the slump in bank and financial-share prices that dragged indices south. First, it is clear from how interest-rate markets have behaved, as well as from the way that different types of stocks have moved in different directions, that investors are not betting on all being well with the banking sector or the economy. Inferring the mindset of investors from the way markets move is more art than science. Regulators rode to the rescue, arranging deals, guaranteeing deposits and extending emergency-lending facilities for banks that found themselves on shaky ground. The happiest interpretation of these events is that the collective wisdom of the market deduced the danger was over. ![]()
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